Former St Vincent PM Leader Ralph Gonsalves warns that the current tensions between the United States and Venezuela represent a “defining moment” for the Caribbean, potentially leading to a “descent into chaos” if not handled through mature diplomacy.
Gonsalves on Monday, cautions that any attempt by the United States to install an alternative government in Venezuela would likely require “boots on the ground,” leading to “pitch battles” where many people would be killed. He warns that such a conflict would result in widespread “mayhem” that would not be contained within Venezuela’s borders.
Gonsalves warns that a crisis would trigger a mass exodus of people, including “bad men and women” who exploit such instability for profit.
He specifically identifies Trinidad, Grenada, and St. Vincent as being at risk from these individuals transiting or entering directly, which could lead to a rapid “descent into chaos” on those islands.
Gonsalves highlights that the regional community is already feeling the “multifaceted impact” of the situation.
CARICOM has expressed concern over the implications for regional economic activity, particularly regarding the stability of air travel.
The former prime minister warned that the U.S. shift toward what he calls the “Donroe Doctrine”—which asserts the Caribbean is the U.S. “backyard” where no country can oppose American policy—represents a “complete break” with international law and the UN Charter. He cautions that this unilateralism could have dangerous “knock-on effects” in other parts of the world.
To underscore the danger, Gonsalves warns Caribbean leaders not to conflate “military or political operations” with simple law enforcement. He points to historical examples like King Jaja of Opobo and Toussaint Louverture, who were lured into “dialogue” only to be abducted or faced with “trumped-up charges”. He suggests that the current charges against President Maduro must be viewed with skepticism, given that even the U.S. President has claimed he could not receive a fair trial in New York.
Gonsalves’ ultimate warning is that “if people don’t talk, people will war”. He urges Caribbean countries to act as interlocutors and push for the UN Security Council to remain permanently involved to ensure a peaceful, diplomatic resolution rather than a military one.