The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) could lose over $542 million annually under the US’s newly imposed reciprocal tariffs, which threatens to unravel decades of export growth, particularly in agriculture, food processing, and apparel. Dr. Patrick Antoine, chief technical director of the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO), delivered a stark warning during a high-level presentation at a CPSO-Private Sector Organisation (PSOJ) Business Forum held at Sandals Montego Bay in St James. The projected annual loss at the 10% tariff rate is over half a billion US dollars, affecting real jobs and livelihoods.
The analysis, conducted by the CPSO with support from CARICOM technical teams and the World Bank, examined hundreds of tariff lines across member states. Among the most impacted sectors are agriculture, seafood, textiles, sugar, and base metals. Guyana’s case, for example, could result in an additional $29.9 million in losses beyond the already projected $89.7 million.
Antoine revealed that Jamaica has 128 product lines in the US market that fall into the ‘fast-growth-high-demand’ category, facing an average export revenue reduction of 8.6%. However, he noted that all is not lost, as if we can drive down inefficiencies, like the high cost of port delays and logistics, we could actually overcompensate for some of the losses.
The US tariffs come at a critical moment for CARICOM as the region prepares its biennial submission to the United States Trade Representative (USTR) for continued access under the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI). The deadline for member states to submit formal comments is July 16, and Antoine urged governments to act swiftly and use CPSO data to support their case.
However, Antoine cautioned that simply asking for CBI preservation is not enough. He called for a ‘CBI Plus’ framework, one that includes new high-performing products outside the traditional eligibility list. The CPSO identified 27 fast-growing products, including coffee, uncooked pasta, and rum, that clearly benefit from preferential access under the CBI.
