A poll conducted by Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company Canada Ltd. (DPBA) survey, conducted from October 1–30, 2025 on the upcoming general election in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) project that the Unity Labour Party (ULP) is likely to secure 8 ± 1 seats, while the New Democratic Party (NDP) is projected to win 7 ± 1 seats.
These results point to a narrow advantage for the ULP, reflecting a finely balanced political landscape where minor shifts in public opinion could determine the outcome.
According to DPBA’s psephological model, the ULP holds a 64% probability of retaining power, compared to 33% for the NDP, with a 3% chance of a hung parliament.
However, even minor fluctuations in voter satisfaction could dramatically alter the final seat distribution, the survey showed.
Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company Canada Ltd. (DPBA) survey further showed that If women and rural voters turn out in high numbers, the ULP is expected to hold its majority.
Conversely, strong mobilisation among urban men and younger voters could give the NDP a path to victory.
The polling data noted that in a 15-seat system, a 1.5% swing in voter sentiment could decide which party forms the next government.
Overview
Public opinion data suggest that the ULP, led by Prime Minister Dr. Ralph E. Gonsalves, maintains a slight but uncertain lead heading into the November 2025 elections. On average, Vincentians rated their satisfaction with the government’s performance at 5.49 out of 10, just above the neutral mark. This indicates that while the ULP continues to enjoy some goodwill after more than two decades in power, its position remains vulnerable. DPBA’s simulation models show that a change of just one point in overall satisfaction could swing control of the 15-seat Parliament from one party to the other, underscoring the volatility of the electorate.
Who Supports Who
The DPBA survey, which sampled 2,402 respondents across all 15 constituencies, highlights distinct demographic and geographic divisions in voter sentiment.
Women remain more supportive of the ULP, while men are more critical of the government’s record. Younger voters, especially those aged 18–24, are the least satisfied and most open to political change. In contrast, older voters, particularly those aged 45–64 and 65+ show stronger loyalty to the incumbent party.
Geographically, urban voters, concentrated in Kingstown and nearby towns, express lower levels of satisfaction, whereas rural voters continue to demonstrate moderate support for the government. In essence, the ULP’s core strength lies among women, older citizens, and rural communities, while the NDP’s rising influence stems from men, younger voters, and the urban middle class seeking change.
Party Strengths
As the ruling party, the ULP continues to command 51–52% of national support. Its strongest bases include North Windward, Marriaqua, and South Windward, where state-led development projects and social programs remain visible. Among women who identify with the ULP, 62% rated the Prime Minister’s performance 6 or higher out of 10, compared to 48% of male respondents—confirming a notable gender-based incumbency advantage.
Meanwhile, the NDP is steadily broadening its appeal among young voters and urban professionals, particularly in East and West Kingstown, the Leeward constituencies, and the Northern and Southern Grenadines. These regions collectively represent roughly 48% of the total electorate. The party’s growing support among men concerned about unemployment, inflation, and the rising cost of living reflects an increasing appetite for economic renewal and new leadership.
Encouragingly, voter engagement across SVG is improving. The proportion of citizens who say they will not vote has fallen from 18% in 2020 to 12% in 2025, a 33% reduction. DPBA analysts attribute this rise in voter participation to social media mobilisation and issue-based campaigning, especially among women aged 25–44, whose non-voting rate dropped from 19% to 10% over the past five years.
Economy and Voter Sentiment
Economic conditions remain the most powerful driver of political satisfaction in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. When economic growth accelerates, government approval tends to rise. However, higher inflation and unemployment generate dissatisfaction, particularly among young voters. The country’s youth unemployment rate, estimated at 27%, remains a significant concern and a key source of NDP support.
DPBA modelling indicates that even a slight shift in perceived economic well-being can significantly influence electoral outcomes. If economic optimism grows, the ULP’s seat projection could improve from 8–7 to 9–6. Conversely, if public perceptions worsen, the NDP could capture up to two marginal constituencies and potentially form a minority government.
