Economic forecasting models, including Moody’s Analytics, have issued stark warnings about the global economy, assigning a 49% probability of a recession in the United States over the next twelve months.
The global economic landscape is currently facing significant stress, driven by volatile energy prices and the potential disruption of oil supplies following Middle Eastern conflicts.
Global spot prices for crude oil have surged past $100 per barrel, raising concerns of “stagflation”—a combination of inflation and stagnant growth. Additionally, there are rising concerns regarding the stability of the US petrodollar, as Saudi Arabia shifts toward pricing energy contracts in Chinese yuan after the end of a 50-year agreement with the US.
Despite the looming global downturn, the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) entered the year with modest growth projections of up to 3%.
Gonsalves vigorously defended his administration’s economic record, pointing out that the National Insurance Services (NIS) posted a record profit of approximately $40 million in 2025 and has been secured until 2065.
He also highlighted the explosive growth of the Bank of St. Vincent and the Grenadines (BOSVG). Since 2001, the bank’s assets have grown by 432%, reaching $2.1 billion by the end of 2024, while shareholders’ equity skyrocketed by 567% to $190 million.
Furthermore, non-performing loans were drastically reduced from 20% to an internationally benchmarked 4.5% during his tenure.