STATEMENT ON UNEP “LIMITING OVERSHOOT” REPORT
Fundamentally, it must be made clear that 1.5°C is not an arbitrary goal that countries can waffle on or walk away from. It is the temperature limit that countries committed to pursue under the Paris Agreement, grounded in the imperative to protect people and the planet from the most dangerous impacts of climate change, and reinforced by the International Court of Justice’s recognition of States’ legal obligations to protect the climate system.
For decades, Small Island Developing States have sounded the alarm about the consequences of unchecked warming. Today, the science is amplifying that warning. Our world is being pushed beyond its limits, and we are playing a dangerous game of roulette with the future of our communities, economies and ecosystems.
We know that every increment of warming above 1.5°C increases the risks of irreversible and potentially catastrophic impacts, from sea-level rise and the loss of habitability in low-lying islands, to glacier and ice-sheet instability, forest dieback, coral reef degradation and escalating threats to food and water security. For SIDS, these are not distant projections. They are risks unfolding before our eyes.
But this report must not be interpreted as a reason to surrender the 1.5°C goal. It must be a wake-up call to act with far greater urgency.
The trajectory is not yet fixed. The Global Stocktake has already identified pathways for closing the emissions gap and pursuing 1.5°C, while the best available science shows that the magnitude and duration of any potential overshoot can still be limited. Governments must therefore focus not only on whether temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C, but on doing everything possible to minimise that overshoot and return global temperatures to below 1.5°C as rapidly as possible.
This is why the next IPCC assessment must be available in time to inform the next Global Stocktake. The world needs the best available science to guide the decisions that will determine the trajectory of warming for decades to come.
AOSIS sends a clear message to all countries: it is vital that we honour the commitments made under the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC, to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and to deploy every available solution to cut emissions rapidly. Technological progress must go hand in hand with rapid global decarbonisation. If governments act now with the highest possible ambition, we can still change the trajectory of warming and work towards stabilising the climate as close to 1.5°C as possible.
Every fraction of a degree matters, not just for SIDS but for the world. As we navigate an increasingly uncertain climate, accelerated, accessible and adequate support for adaptation, resilience and loss and damage is vital.
The UNEP report should therefore not be read as a verdict on 1.5°C. It should be understood as a warning about what is at stake. This must be a call to action. Governments must urgently activate policies that limit the magnitude and duration of any potential overshoot and keep the pathway back to 1.5°C within reach.
1.5°C must remain the North Star, and overshoot cannot become an excuse for further inaction.
