A shifting weather pattern is set to bring noticeable changes to the Caribbean as a cold front nudges closer to the region heading into the weekend. In a forecast delivered on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, meteorologist Brian Shields reported that while early-week conditions feature scattered, spotty showers, a significant build-up of rainfall, gusty winds, and lower temperatures will sweep across the northern Caribbean by Friday and Saturday.
The atmospheric shift is driven by a front developing from New England and Atlantic Canada, stretching down through Bermuda and the Bahamas. As the front pushes southward toward the end of the working week, moisture will be pulled up ahead of it. While Shields noted the system is not as strong as the major front that impacted the region last February, it will nonetheless disrupt current weather patterns, bringing heavy rain down through the Bahamas and into parts of the Greater Antilles.
Precipitation is expected to increase markedly starting Thursday and peaking through Friday and Saturday. Major areas in line for enhanced rainfall include Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun, Cozumel, Merida, and Campeche. While short-term rainfall around the Cayman Islands and Jamaica may see localized totals of 25 millimeters or slightly more, the arrival of the main front over the weekend promises a much more active period with heavy downpours at times.
Behind the frontal boundary, cooler air will slide across northern territories. Temperatures across Florida are forecast to drop into the 40s Fahrenheit in many areas, while the Bahamas will experience chillier morning temperatures. Further south, daytime temperatures will hover near 25 degrees Celsius in Jamaica and the low 20s Celsius in Cuba. Although coastal lowlands may notice only minor temperature shifts, the higher terrain of Haiti and the Dominican Republic will see a distinct cool-down, with noticeably colder conditions taking hold by Sunday morning.
In addition to rain and temperature drops, marine conditions will deteriorate across regional waters. Gustier winds arriving alongside the front will elevate wave heights across the Gulf of Mexico, the southeastern United States, the Bahamas, and the central Caribbean. Marine forecasts indicate seas building to between 2 and 2.5 meters—roughly 7 to 9 feet—in some spots, prompting advisory warnings for mariners and coastal interests.
The incoming front will not affect all parts of the region equally. In the southeastern Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago continue to be dominated by dry, unseasonably warm weather, with persistent drought conditions holding firm.
Passing showers remain possible across Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada, where rain chances rise up to 50 percent by Wednesday. Meanwhile, drier spots in the northeastern Caribbean—including Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, and St. Maarten—may see the tail end of the front draw in much-needed rain by the close of the weekend.
