With the Caribbean in the midst of the Atlantic hurricane season, the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) predicts that ocean temperatures in and around the Caribbean will be significantly above average from June to August as the Pacific transitions towards El Nino.
According to the CariCOF weekly for June to August, these two elements will steadily enhance heat stress by increasing temperatures, humidity, and the frequency of heatwaves.
“El Nino and an unusually warm Atlantic, on the other hand, have opposing effects on rainfall totals and extremes, as well as hurricane activity,” it states. Until we know which of these two drivers will prevail, the region should not be concerned about drought by August.
Despite this, the risk of flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards will rise from moderate to high by August.”
It was also said that periodic Saharan dust invasions into the region are to be expected.
According to its June/July/August 2023 Rainfall Outlook, rainfall totals from June to August are projected to be normal or higher across much of the Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands.
The ABC Islands, The Bahamas, Barbados, Cayman, the eastern parts of the Guianas, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Windward Islands, on the other hand, are likely to receive the typical rainfall levels at most.
Looking ahead to August, CariCOF expects that temperatures will be high enough to be uncomfortable for many, especially since they may end up being considerably higher than typical.
It predicts that heat and humidity will increase as the Caribbean near the height of the annual Heat Season in August. Recurring heat waves are likely to exacerbate heat stress in a summer that could surpass the torrid year of 2020.
