The End of the Golden Passport?
The market for “citizenship-by-investment” (CBI), popularly known as “golden passports,” has long been a booming industry, offering the world’s elite a path to greater global mobility. For several small Caribbean nations, these programs have become a cornerstone of their economies, providing a vital stream of revenue.
This lucrative model, however, is now facing an existential threat. A recent report from the European Commission signals a dramatic and hardline shift in policy, putting the entire CBI framework at risk. The EU’s new position moves beyond calls for reform and targets the very existence of these programs in countries that enjoy visa-free access to the Schengen area.
The EU’s Core Argument
The European Commission has significantly altered its stance on CBI programs. In the past, criticism often centered on procedural weaknesses, such as the lack of “genuine links” between an applicant and their new country. While the Commission still identifies this as a risk factor, it appears to no longer require demonstrating this deficiency to act.
The new position is far more absolute. The Commission now argues that the mere existence of a CBI program in a country with visa-free EU access is an inherent security threat. This shift reframes the debate entirely, making the programs themselves—not just their operational flaws—the core problem. The gravity of this change is captured in the report’s unequivocal language:
“The operation of such programmes constitutes, in itself, a ground for suspending the visa-free status of third countries.”
This reclassification of CBI programs from a regulatory challenge to an intrinsic security threat effectively nullifies any path forward based on reform, creating a diplomatic dead end.
Recommendations Read More Like an Ultimatum
The Commission’s formal recommendations to the five Caribbean CBI nations—Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Lucia—are not a collaborative roadmap for reform. A closer look at the language reveals what can only be interpreted as an ultimatum.
The report’s annexes call on the countries to enhance their security vetting procedures “pending the discontinuation” of their CBI schemes. This specific wording is critical. It frames any improvements to due diligence as temporary, stop-gap measures before an expected shutdown.
The EU is not presenting these security upgrades as a long-term solution that would make the programs acceptable. Instead, it explicitly states that its ultimate goal is the complete elimination of Caribbean CBI programs.
What The Data Reveals
The report notes that these countries have harmonized the minimum investment threshold at $200,000, strengthened security screening, and established common standards for information-sharing and transparency. That these reforms are still deemed insufficient powerfully underscores the EU’s new, uncompromising position.
Brussels’ concerns are fueled by the sheer scale and operational realities of the industry. The report highlights data points that paint a picture of a high-volume business with vetting processes the EU finds troublingly permissive.
• Massive Volume: The five Caribbean countries have collectively issued over 100,000 passports through their investment programs.
• Continued Demand: Applications have remained high, with 13,113 submitted in 2023 and another 10,573 in 2024.
• Low Rejection Rates: The Commission expressed particular concern over “very low” rejection rates. In 2024, the figures were just 1.7% for Antigua and Barbuda, 5.3% for Saint Lucia, and 6.5% for Dominica.
From the EU’s perspective, such high application volumes paired with low rejection rates suggest an untenable security risk, regardless of recent procedural improvements.
EU Testing Its Enforcement Playbook
The same EU report that targets the Caribbean also details how this enforcement mechanism is already being put into practice, providing a clear template for future action.
Georgia is cited as a real-world test case, facing EU scrutiny for “democratic backsliding.” In response, Brussels is implementing a phased suspension of visa-free travel, starting with holders of Georgian diplomatic, service, and official passports. This action demonstrates that the EU possesses not only a legal mechanism but also the political will to deploy it, shifting the conversation from theoretical risk to probable consequence.
This phased approach could easily be adapted for the Caribbean nations. By showing its readiness to act against Georgia, the EU makes its threat against CBI countries far more immediate and credible, proving the visa-suspension mechanism is a tool ready for deployment.