Former St Vincent PM Ralph Gonsalves describes the “Trump factor” as a significant new element in the “asymmetrical, hugely uneven power relations” between the United States and the Caribbean. On Monday he stated that to understand this factor, one must look past common caricatures and recognize the specific strategic logic driving the administration’s actions.
Gonsalves explicitly rejects the view held by many adversaries that Donald Trump is “irrational, impetuous and unpredictable”.
Instead, he characterizes Trump as a “rational being” who is skillfully pursuing a clear “America first” policy within a complex global system. He views Trump as a Machiavellian figure who understands human nature and is adept at using both the “prospects of punishments” and the “promising [of] rewards” to achieve his goals.
A core component of the Trump factor is a preference for transactional deals over traditional political ideology. Gonsalves notes that Trump is motivated by “what works for America” rather than fixed doctrines, stating that while he may demand subservience, he actually prefers a “mutually satisfying deal” because he understands that forced subservience is often temporary and “laced with hypocrisy”.
“He seeks to achieve his objectives—such as reasserting American preeminence—at the “least cost possible,” preferring economic or political maneuvers over pitch battles on the streets”.
Gonsalves says that the “Trump factor” is primarily defined by a drive to checkmate global competitors, specifically the People’s Republic of China. He contends that Trump’s actions in the region (such as those in Venezuela) are not just about resources like oil but about containing the “elephant in the room”—China—and ensuring that “non-hemispheric competitors” do not control “strategic vital assets”.
Despite the impact of Trump’s personality, Gonsalves emphasizes that even the most powerful leaders do not make history exactly as they please.
“Trump is still encumbered by history, he operates under circumstances transmitted from the past where the traditions of dead generations weigh on the brains of the living. He remains constrained by the requisites of American democracy” and the broader global condition”.
Gonsalves warns that the Trump administration is closely watching the newly elected NDP government, and he believes the White House, specifically advisors like Steve Miller, is monitoring the NDP’s proposals to sell passports (CBI) and shift diplomatic ties to China, both of which the U.S. views as “inherent security challenges” or direct threats to their hemispheric strategy.
