According to the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), ocean temperatures will continue substantially above average for the next three months, exacerbating heat stress in the Caribbean.
CariCOF stated in its latest edition of the Caribbean Climate Outlooks that “Pacific and Atlantic ocean temperatures should remain well above average, continuing to amplify heat stress in the Caribbean through October by increasing temperatures, humidity, and heatwave frequency to rival some of the warmest heat seasons on record” from September to November.
It predicted that a moderate to strong El Nio, a climate trend characterized by extraordinary warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, would reduce the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in Belize and the islands, as well as cause more short-term dry periods than typical.
“By contrast, record-warm Atlantic waters are expected to intensify showers, resulting in limited drought concern but a particularly high risk of flooding and cascading hazards.” The hot and dry season in the Guianas is expected to be severe.
“However, the unusually warm Pacific and Atlantic are having opposite effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane season activity.” For the time being, the record-warm Atlantic appears to be dominant across much of the islands, resulting in modest drought concern, but the potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading risks will be significant due to abundant rains. The Guianas, on the other hand, will be primarily drier and hotter beginning in mid-August,” it noted.
It predicted that rainfall totals in the ABC (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao) Islands, The Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands will be average or higher through October. Barbados, Belize, the Guianas, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Windward Islands, on the other hand, are likely to receive the usual amount of rain or less.
Long-term drought is developing in central Belize, Dominica, and southern French Guiana, with Martinique, St. Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago probably developing or continuing by the end of November.
