(Invest 92-L) – Bret could form in the central Atlantic this week. The GFS model takes the disturbance to the North skirting the islands, while the European model takes it across the islands.
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so.
This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further
development through the middle part of the week
. If the system continues to organize it could become a tropical storm. The second name on the list is Bret.
Rare for Main Development Region in June
The central portion of the Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where Invest 92L is located, is called the Main Development Region (MDR).
It is extremely rare to see a named storm in this area in June. Storms typically form in the Gulf or off the US East Coast this time of year. There have only been a few named storms on record that originated in the MDR.
One reason for this early formation of a tropical system could be the record warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic. The SSTs are closer to their July and August temperatures, allowing for tropical formation in the region to reflect peak summer characteristics. This could be driven partially by low amounts of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic and the flip to El Niño.
