The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), based in Barbados, cautioned Tuesday that forecasting rainfall over the next three months may become challenging as the Caribbean enters the wet season.
CariCOF stated in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter that the Pacific may enter El Nio conditions, while ocean temperatures throughout the Caribbean are likely to rise above-average.
El Nio’ is a term commonly used to describe the periodic increase of sea surface temperature. It has a significant impact on climate patterns throughout the world.
“As the Caribbean enters the wet season, this makes it difficult to forecast rainfall with confidence.” Nonetheless, long-term drought concerns are growing in Cuba, and the effects of frequent dry spells across the Islands and Belize are expected to last until May or June, with a peak in wildfire potential and Saharan dust intrusions, according to CariCOF.
Recurring heatwaves are feasible in the Islands, but improbable in the Leeward Islands, according to the report.
“In comparison, the risk of flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards will be moderate.” Finally, tropical cyclones could form as soon as May.”
According to CariCOF, the Pacific transitioned out of a long-lasting La Nia event over the first three months of the year.
“This part of the dry season in Hispaniola and parts of the Lesser Antilles was more intense than usual, resulting in wildfire weather by February or March, depending on location.” There was no heat pain because the Caribbean cool season lasted until March.”
Long-term drought is developing across Cuba, northwest Puerto Rico, and St. Vincent, and it is possible that it may develop or continue in Barbados, northwest Belize, southern Dominican Republic, Grenada, and southeast Puerto Rico by the end of May this year.
Short-term drought could occur in western Belize and southern French Guiana by the end of July, according to CariCOF.