In the past year, air travel has experienced a remarkable rebound, notably breaking pre-pandemic passenger records in the run-up to the Fourth of July holiday. However, as the number of air travelers increases, the skies have gotten more stormy.
As turbulence has increased, there have been more reports of wings bouncing, drink carts flying, and people being shaken around. The duration of severe turbulence on flights over the North Atlantic has increased by 55% over the last four decades, according to researchers from the University of Reading in the United Kingdom. According to Isabel Smith, a researcher at the University of Reading, the considerable increase has been related to climate change.
According to NPR, seven individuals were hospitalized in March 2023 when a commercial plane suffered turbulence, while one person died in a separate event aboard a corporate jet. Due to severe turbulence, scores of people were injured on a Hawaiian Airlines trip from Phoenix to Honolulu in December 2022.
“With global tropospheric warming, the jet stream, which is this fast-flowing band, is becoming more chaotic and stronger,” Smith told AccuWeather National Reporter Bill Wadell.
A jet stream is effectively an atmospheric highway at the level at which aircraft fly. Winds in this fast-moving river of air can reach 250 mph. Typically, airplanes flying west to east will make faster time than aircraft flying east to west. When flying from west to east, aircraft generally encounter a jet stream tailwind rather than a jet stream headwind.
Pilots use the jet stream while flying because the wind trapped within the jet stream can propel the airplane faster to its destination, allowing the pilots to save fuel. Clear-air turbulence, on the other hand, is becoming more of a hazard for jet stream aircraft.
“As you’re flying, [clear-air turbulence] can come out of nowhere, hit the aircraft quite suddenly, and you don’t have time to put the seatbelt sign on,” explained Smith.
Clear-air turbulence is undetectable by onboard radar equipment. While clear-air turbulence poses a significant challenge for pilots due to its invisibility, avoiding the jet stream altogether may not be a viable solution. Even though modifying flight paths to not be in the jet stream could lower the risk of clear-air turbulence, it could also lead to other issues.
Turbulence Intensity Classification
Light: Slight erratic changes in altitude and/or attitude.
Moderate: Change in altitude and/or attitude, but the aircraft remains in positive control at all times.
Severe: Large, abrupt changes in altitude and/or attitude. Aircraft may be momentarily out of control.
Extreme: Aircraft is violently tossed about and practically impossible to control. May cause structural damage.
“If you were to avoid the jet stream when you’re flying, you might have your flight times be a little longer, you might actually burn more fuel, which of course is going to contribute to more significant impacts on the climate,” AccuWeather Director of Forensic Sciences John Lavin said.
The increase in turbulence may lead to significant changes in the way we travel.
“We’ll probably end up with more convoluted, longer flight routes, longer waiting times, and flights will become more expensive,” Smith explained.
In the long term, airplanes may be built with more advanced technology to detect clear-air turbulence and allow more warning for passengers on board. In the meantime, Smith said simple advice may be the most important to follow: “Keep your seatbelt on as much as possible.”
