The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) has issued a critical forecast that paints a challenging picture for several Caribbean nations, with St. Vincent and other regional islands facing potential long-term drought conditions in the coming months.
According to the latest climate report, severe short-term drought has already developed throughout the Windward Islands, affecting regions including Aruba, parts of the Dominican Republic, and Guadeloupe.
The forecast specifically highlights St. Vincent, southwest Dominica, northern Jamaica, parts of northern Guyana, and St. Croix as areas of significant concern.
CariCOF’s analysis indicates a notable shift in regional climate patterns, with expectations of:
- Decreased tropical cyclone activity
- Reduction in excessively hot and humid days
- Transition into dry and cool seasonal conditions
The forum points to complex meteorological factors, including:
- Emerging La Niña conditions
- Cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
- Unusual warmth in the Subtropical North Atlantic
Flooding Risks and Potential Impacts
Despite the drought forecast, the climate outlook suggests high rainfall intensity in specific regions, including:
- ABC Islands
- Belize
- Lesser Antilles
These conditions could potentially lead to:
- High flooding potential
- Flash flood risks
- Cascading environmental hazards
As the region approaches the dry season, residents and authorities must remain vigilant and prepared for the potential long-term impacts of these projected drought conditions.
