The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is warning Caribbean countries to be prepared for “increased tropical cyclones and severe weather activity” over the next three months.
“It cannot be over emphasised — particularly after the record-breaking Category 5 hurricane Beryl, plenty of flooding and nearly non-stop record-breaking heat — that 2024 is a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean.”
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication released on Monday, CariCOF said that a transition to La Niña may occur in the equatorial Pacific while near record-warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures will likely continue.
La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface-ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America.
Typically, La Niña events occur every three to five years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years.
“For the Caribbean Islands and Belize, such ocean conditions imply increased tropical cyclone and severe weather activity through December, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” CariCOF said.
It said unusual oceanic heat further implies episodes of “oppressive humid heat could continue intoearly-November”, particularly in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), the Guianas and the Windward Islands.
“The Guianas will transition from the hot and dry season into cooler and (much) wetter conditions from late November, except in the far southwest,” CariCOF added.
It said that as of September 1, severe or short term drought has developed in Trinidad and worse drought conditions are being recorded in the interior parts of the Guianas.
It said short term drought may be possible in Suriname.
“Long term drought as at the end of November is evolving in southwest Belize, French Guiana and Trinidad and might possibly develop or continue in coastal Guyana, the United States Virgin islands, St Vincent and Tobago,” CariCOF added.
Regarding the climate outlook for the period January to March 2025, CariCOF said night time and day time temperatures, as well as air humidity will likely be considerably higher than usual in most areas.
“Frequent episodes of heat stress are expected the region is likely to continue through October in this record-breaking heat season. Heat stress may further ramp up where dry spells are more frequent than usual.
“This period marks the progression of the Caribbean Dry Season to its usual peak by March and the Cool Season. An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is forecast for this period.”
But CariCOF said that more comfortable temperatures, though likely higher and with more humidity than usual are forecast for this Cool Season.
“The risk of severe weather impacts from intense shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should decrease from moderate in early January to marginal in early March in Belize and the islands.
“An intense Dry Season is forecast for the Bahamas, Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially leading to short-term drought. By contrast, unusually copious rainfall is forecast for the ABC Islands, Guianas and Lesser Antilles,” it added.
