Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) continue to forecast a well-above-average 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season with the prediction of an estimated 10 hurricanes, 20 named storms and five major hurricanes.
CSU on July 7 released its extended-range forecast for Atlantic Hurricane activity.
It anticipates La Niña to persist throughout the remainder of the hurricane season, given the strong central tropical Pacific trade wind surge that is underway and predicted to persist for the next several weeks. Sea surface temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic are now above normal.
“We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
CSU experts state information obtained through early July 2022 indicates that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will have well above the 1991 to 2020 average activity.
Alex, Bonnie and Colin have already formed as of July 6.
It estimates that the full (including storms that have already formed) 2022 season will have 10 hurricanes, 20 named storms and five major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes.
The probability of US major hurricane landfall for the remainder of the season is estimated to be about 145 per cent of the long-period full-season average.
Noted as well was that most of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean now has above-normal sea surface temperatures, and the far eastern part of the subtropical North Atlantic is also warmer than normal.
The current sea surface temperature configuration is typically associated with more active hurricane seasons.
In addition, while early season Atlantic hurricane activity is typically not associated with the remainder of the season’s activity, named storm activity in the Caribbean in July (e.g., Bonnie) is typically associated with above-normal seasons
CSU will issue a seasonal update of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane forecast on August 4, 2022.
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