- Caribbean economies expected to grow, says World Bank
In 2023, Latin America and the Caribbean experienced a significant economic slowdown, growing just 2.2 percent. This deceleration came in the context of heightened inflation and tight monetary conditions, weak global trade, and adverse weather events. Despite these challenges, growth in Brazil and Mexico exceeded previous forecasts. Brazil’s positive performance was fueled by better-than-expected agricultural production, robust private consumption, and increasing exports in the first three quarters of the year. Similarly, Mexico witnessed stronger-than-projected growth in both private consumption and investment.
Outlook: The economic outlook for the region suggests a gradual recovery, with growth projected to increase to 2.3 percent in 2024 and 2.5 percent in 2025. While the lingering effects of previous monetary tightening will continue to influence near-term growth, their impact is expected to diminish. As inflation slows, central banks are expected to reduce interest rates, alleviating obstacles to investment growth.
Country-specific projections are mixed. For Brazil, growth is anticipated to slow in 2024 to 1.5 percent, but a recovery to 2.2 percent is forecast for 2025, underpinned by decreasing inflation and declining interest rates. Meanwhile, Mexico’s growth is forecast to ease to 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.1 percent in 2025, influenced by falling inflation and weaker external demand. Argentina’s economy, on the other hand, is projected to rebound, expanding by 2.7 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, following the drought in 2023.
Colombia’s growth trajectory is expected to firm from 1.2 percent in 2023 to 1.8 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025. Growth in Chile is forecast to be 1.8 percent in 2024, then accelerate to 2.3 percent in 2025. Peru is projected to rebound from a contraction in 2023, growing 2.5 percent in 2024 and 2.3 percent in 2025, supported by increased mining production.
Excluding Guyana, which is experiencing a resource boom, Caribbean economies are expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in 2025, partly due to the ongoing expansion of the tourism sector. For Central America, steady growth is envisioned, with rates of 3.7 percent in 2024 and 3.8 percent in 2025. This outlook is supported by a moderate increase in remittances, particularly in 2024.
In the long term, the region faces persistent challenges. The potential for economic growth is declining amid a slowdown in total factor productivity and an aging population.
Risks: The projected modest regional expansion is beset by risks. Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, could disrupt energy markets and cause oil prices to surge. Extreme weather events, intensified by climate change, present additional risks, particularly to climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, energy, and fishing.
External factors and global trends also contribute to the risk landscape. Persistent core inflation in advanced economies could be accompanied by persistently high global interest rates, constraining monetary and fiscal policies in the region. Furthermore, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China’s growth could have notable spillovers to external demand, impacting the region’s commodity exports.
