The predictions have been made, the time has passed and hurricane season is here. It officially started at 12:00 a.m. Wednesday, June 1st, and ends at 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, November 30th.
This year hasn’t had a preseason named storm unlike the last 7 consecutive years, but that doesn’t mean things will stay calm. Named storms before June 1st aren’t really an indicator of how the rest of the season will go.
Two of the most widely used and trusted hurricane season outlooks — NOAA and Colorado State University — call for an above average year.
An average year brings 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Both NOAA and CSU expect more in each of the three categories. If they are right, this will be the 7th-straight above average season.
In terms of when to expect tropical systems to develop, it can happen at any point in the calendar year. The months that usually feature the most activity are August, September and October.
On average, the first named storm occurs by June 20th, the second named storm by July 17th and the third named storm by August 3rd. Once August gets underway, though, the pace at which we typically see storms develop ramps up — fast.
August and September average four named storms apiece, while October brings three.
The date by which we see our first hurricane develop by, on average, is August 11th. That doesn’t mean we have to wait until August to get the season’s first hurricane; it could come in June or July. It’s just we usually have the first hurricane of the season by August 11th.
If you’re curious whether or not your name is on this year’s list, here it is:
- Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl
- Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia
- Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen
- Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter
Should each name be used, a supplemental list will take over. There will no longer be Greek letters since that method can lead to confusion with some names sounding similar.
This supplemental list of names will be the same every year going forward. The exception will be if one of the names end up being retired due to the damage, injuries and/or deaths it causes. Then a new name will be added to the supplementary list.
That list is as follows:
- Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery
- Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus
- Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda
- Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, Will
