The second of the NOAA NHC/UCAR Storm Surge workshop at CIMH highlighted topics on ‘understanding risk’, storm surge modelling, risk mapping, risk analysis, and most importantly, communicating risk. The forecasters and disaster managers were able to visualize storm surge simulations along the Belize, US, and Bahamian coastlines, which vividly demonstrated the reality of the risk of deadly storm surge inundation with the onset of a tropical storm or hurricane.
The NHC Storm Surge team has done considerable work to produce simulation risk maps, or Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW), which provide a worst-case basin snapshot for a particular storm category, forward speed, trajectory, and initial tide level, incorporating uncertainty in forecast landfall location. While much of the work has been completed or is about to be completed, the plan is to produce these maps for all Caribbean territories.
These MEOWs will allow for the identification of high-risk locations prone to storm surge in a matter of minutes in the event of a storm. It also aids in preseason planning for evacuation areas and the placement of storm shelters.
Finally, there were presentations on increasing observation networks with cost-effective 3D-printed automatic weather stations (3DPAWS) and surge monitoring stations. The lack of observational data has been one of the greatest obstacles to progressing with storm surge modelling in the region.
The day concluded with a stirring presentation on communication by Mr. Jamie Rhome, head of the NHC storm surge division. In an era where climate change is of growing importance, how forecasters and disaster managers pivot the focus away from the unknowns of climate change to the deadly hazards of a hurricane can be challenging. All were advised to “stick to the knowns,” i.e., that storm surge and flooding remain the deadliest storm hazards and immediate dangers.
