After an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an “above-average” 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA predicts 14 to 21 named storms, including three to six major hurricanes.
“Major hurricanes” are Category 3, 4 or 5 and have sustained winds of 111 mph or higher based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Major hurricanes can cause catastrophic damage that could result in widespread power outages and leave residential areas uninhabitable for several days to months.
The 2022 hurricane season is the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA says there is a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
This year is likely to have increased activity due to several climate factors, including:
- La Niña
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
- An enhanced West African monsoon
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 to November 30, but hurricanes and severe storms can form before or after.
Colorado State University (CSU) also predicts that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will again be above-normal. The team there predicts 19 named storms and four major hurricanes. CSU bases its hurricane season predictions on models that use 40 years of historical data and evaluates conditions, including:
- El Niño
- Sea surface temperatures
- Sea level pressures
- Vertical wind shear levels (change in speed and direction of winds with height in the atmosphere)
- Other factors
The CSU team cites the likely absence of El Niño as the major reason for the “above average” hurricane season. When El Niño is present in the Pacific, its wind shear force can literally break down hurricanes as they form in the Caribbean and Atlantic.
The 2022 hurricane season’s activity will be about 130% of an average season, according to the CSU forecast. Last year’s hurricane season saw about 140% of the average season.
This year’s hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021. All had above-average hurricane activity, per Phil Klotzbach, research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report.
CSU will issue hurricane forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4, 2022.
