NHC in a 4.50 P.M update says data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the Windward Islands does not have a closed circulation and the centre remains ill-defined.
In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still displaced to the southeast of the centre.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days if the system stays far enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in those locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
