Eight will always be more than Seven
“I am a democrat. I believe in the will of the people as carried out through free and fair elections; but it is never in my contemplation that the Unity Labour Party can lose this election. I have no worry at all because we require eight seats to form the Government. It is completely out of any comprehension whatsoever, objectively, to think that there could be a loss of any seat for the ULP between West Saint George and North Windward. It doesn’t matter if you use old maths, new maths, fuzzy maths, funny maths or Jomo maths. It doesn’t matter which one of the maths you use… Eight will always be more than seven.” – Dr. Ralph E. Gonsalves.
I will not be using old maths or new maths in this analysis – only simple maths.
Let us quickly review the following five constituencies:
- North Windward
- South Central Windward
- South Windward
- East Saint George and
- North Leeward
The principle that Dr. Gonsalves is working with is: project strength even where there is weakness.
These are the facts in relation to the margins of victory for the ULP:
in North Windward between 2001-2020
2001 – 208
2005 – 389
2010 – 250
2015 – 323
2020 – 62
in South Windward between 2001-2020
2001 – 1488
2005 – 1279
2010 – 786
2015 – 759
2020 – 219
in East Saint George between 2001-2020
2001 – 1433
2005 – 700
2010 – 283
2015 – 607
2020 – 196
in South Central Windward between 2001-2020
2001 – 606
2005 – 566
2010 – 568
2015 – 588
2020 – 239
In North Leeward in 2020
2020 – 1
Dr. Gonsalves and other speakers at their rallies continue to double down on the lie that the 2020 results were as a result of ULP supporters staying away from the polls because of “a grumble here and a grumble there”.
Here are even more important facts
North Windward
In 2020, the ULP secured 2669 votes in North Windward. Since 2001, only once in their entire political history have they recorded more votes; having secured 2713 in 2015 – 44 votes more than they did in 2020. The reason the margin of victory was 62 in 2020 is not because their supporters stayed home or because Montgomery Daniel was losing support. It was because for the first time in their then 45 year history, the NDP secured over 2600 votes in North Windward. It had never been done. This of course can reasonably be credited to first-timer Shevern John who added over 200 votes to the NDP column in one election cycle, and stands out in my mind as one of the best politicians I have observed in recent memory.
While Dr. Grace Walters continues to defend her poor leadership as Hospital Administrator, defend her $144,000.00 contract, explain her absence during the volcanic eruptions of 2021, and base her campaign on an eighteen year old bridge, any further increase by Shevern will require Dr. Walters to produce a record to retain the North Windward seat. Can a reasonable man, being objective, describe flipping North Windward as “completely out of any comprehension?” Impossible is the last word any analyst should use in making a prediction.
South Windward
Of all the constituencies in this analysis, South Windward is the most interesting. No other constituency has shown a greater fall off in support for the ULP than South Windward. It may be perplexing to everyone except residents of South Windward. Dr. Gonsalves reminded his base that no other constituency in the entire country has seen more capital investment than the South Windward Constituency – boasting the Argyle International Airport, the Sir Vincent Beache National Stadium and more recently, the Holiday Inn. However, the worst performance for the ULP and the best performance for the NDP (since 2001) came in 2020 after the opening of the Argyle International Airport and the Sir Vincent Beache athletic Stadium. What started off as a 1,488 margin has been reduced to 219 with the ULP losing as much ground in terms of margins as 493 between 2005-2010 and 540 between 2015-2020. This is a trend that spans the entire 24 years of ULP’s rule with South Windward being the only constituency where the margin continued to narrow in 2015 when every other constituency rebounded with either an increased margin of victory for the ULP or smaller margins of loss. I wonder how Dr. Gonsalves will explain the downward spiral in the airport constituency?
For starters, the concept of a safe seat is central. When politicians believe that a constituency is “labour territory”, it is very easy to become complacent and believe that you will continue to win because you have always won. To be sure, the elected representative for South Windward – Frederick Stephenson has done virtually nothing in the constituency over the last fifteen years. For this reason, I am always amused when Dr. Gonsalves refers to NDP politicians as lazy. In all my years of observing politics, I have never observed a lazier politician than Frederick Stephenson.
In as much as Dr. Gonsalves mentions the life and legacy of the late Sir Vincent Beache, if Dr. Gonsavles had any respect whatsoever for that legacy, he would never select a man mostly known for drinking rum to serve as the successor to the Beaches. I am absolutely sure he would be far more circumspect when the time comes for him to choose his own successor in North Central Windward. Of note, the Sir Vincent Beache national “stadium” remains incomplete more than five years after it was declared open. At the time of its opening in the last election cycle, the facility did not have as much as a toilet for athletes to use, requiring schools to use portable toilets during the first competitions. Work there continues at a snail’s pace.
It gets worse. Darron Rodan John has consistently reminded us that he is not new to politics as he has been part of the ULP’s machinery in South Windward over the last 15 years. Those in the know say that he was Stephenson’s right hand man. Since launching his campaign, Darron has lauded the “magnificent” work that was done in the constituency by Frederick Stephenson. In circumstances where Darron has repeatedly stated that he has been part of Stephenson’s team – I can only conclude that Darron John is either equally lazy or equally incompetent as his predecessor and the proof of the pudding is in the eating.
Moreover, you will notice that Frederick Stephenson was noticeably absent from the stage during the ULP’s mass rally in Biabou. I am not sure if that was deliberate to distant themselves from what can only be described as fifteen years of failure because surely he should have been a speaker. However, on stage that night were Adrian Odle – who is now very busy defending Storm Gonsalves in his Trinidadian scandal, Ashelle Morgan, who is very well-known for all the wrong reasons and Rochard “Pitbull” Ballah, the former senator who had his senatorial appointment revoked almost as soon as he was appointed. Relegated to the crowd was Louis Daisley, the aspiring candidate on whom Gonsalves pulled the plug hours before the candidate selection. Dr. Gonsalves sent a very clear message when he disrespected Daisley publicly as the inner workings of the party needed not be made public. The message that echoes to me is that only residents from certain parts of the constituency are qualified to represent the ULP in South Windward. The rest of us from Diamond, Mt. Pleasant, Stubbs, Calder, Victoria Village and Carapan are good enough to vote but not good enough to serve as candidates. Secondly and more importantly, Dr. Gonsalves was not sufficiently confident that Darron could win at the constituency level and his candidacy could only be secured if he interfered with the democratic process. If Darron would emerge as the strongest candidate, nothing would be lost by taking the vote. To be sure, Darron John is the only candidate contesting this election who was not selected by his constituency but was unfairly helicoptered in by Dr. Gonsalves himself. Unfortunately, Dr. Gonsalves will not be able to helicopter him in on election day; Darron will win or lose on his own merit.
I am of the view that South Windward has consistently moved toward the NDP since 2001 not only because of shameful neglect but also because residents of other constituencies have benefited more than South Windward residents despite the fact that these capital projects are located in our backyard. The constituency development plan presented by Darron shows the extent of neglect in our constituency more than anything. There are so many basic things that are included in that plan that could have been done but for paralyzing laziness and confidence in complacency. Let Dr. Gonsalves continue to fool himself that all seven seats belong to him. The clock is ticking and nonsense will not continue into perpetuity, nor would cosmetic changes in switching out a candidate here and a candidate there fool any of us.
East Saint George
Following on from my last point, East Saint George comes into focus. In 2024, Camillo Gonsalves referred to the budget as an East Saint George budget and the members of that side of the house proceeded to pound their tables. Here is a Minister of Finance, using his Ministerial portfolio to feather his nest while his colleagues blindly approve his conduct. Camillo actually proceeded to say “…if I say everything that’s in the budget for East St. George, some of my own colleagues might get a little jealous.” No alarm bells went off. Of course, fellas like Gustas Stephenson could not be bothered to advocate for his own constituency. The laziness was too far entrenched. An education revolution is good but they can’t teach you everything in school. After an election that showed several narrow victories for traditional safe seats, one man is securing his own seat to the detriment of the others who naively sing his praises. It is often said that common sense make before book.
In any event, East Saint George was the largest constituency in 2020 by registered voters and had the largest amount of voters in the 2020 election. Notwithstanding having the highest number of voters, it did not record the highest percentage of voters with respect to eligible voters versus actual voters. Nonetheless, Camillo secured 2846 votes – the second highest performance the ULP has had in East Saint George in their history in terms of actual voters. Like North Windward, only the rebound year of 2015 showed a higher support. It is crucial to understand that the ULP’s performance in 2020 is therefore above average with the average being 2823. The margin of victory in 2020 was a narrow 196 because the NDP secured their best ever performance in East Saint George. Camillo goes into the 2025 election hoping that producing an “East Saint George National Budget” will be his saving grace. What may help him will surely damage others in a contest where nobody can afford to lose even marginal support. Even reckless constituency transfers can cause a flip in a seat.
I will conclude by saying that there is a very good reason the conversation about Dr. Gonsalves’ successor has taken a back seat. In 2020, both Camillo and Sabato were touted as being the two candidates likely to succeed as party leader; but how can you have that conversation when neither of the two are guaranteed to win their seats in the upcoming election? In this regard, Dr. Gonsalves is absolutely right in putting off that conversation until the conclusion of the 2025 election. Remember, NDP does not need to sweep the seven Windward seats to form Government, they only need one. In this regard, 1 from 7 is 0. Pollsters can say what they want but there are only two relevant questions to be answered in this election. Firstly, who is the weakest link? Secondly, is this year likely to be a rebound year for the Unity Labour Party?
My next article will be titled “Still waters run deep”. In it, I will share my thoughts on the vaccine mandate law and more importantly – the call for workers to return to their jobs.
